With 50% of the vote for Best Picture, IMDB members think it’s obvious.

Fellowship is going to sweep!

Roger Ebert picks the oscars.

He likes the chances of Lord of the Rings, but ultimately picks Moulin Rouge.

I began Oscar season convinced that “Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring” had a lock on this category. It is visionary, expensive, and has two sequels already in the can. If it is true (and it is) that one of the purposes of the Academy Awards is to improve future business, LOTR has more to gain than its competitors. It is also a pretty good picture–the kind of sweeping epic that reminds us of Hollywood’s glory days.

But then… no.